The Monte Carlo Simulation technique traditionally appeard as option choices in PMP exam. However, over the past year, we have noticed an increase in the use of this technique, and there has been an increase in the questions that refer to the Monte Carlo simulation technique. There are many PMP questions which directly refer to the properties of the technique. So I thought to share with you the key properties of this simulation technique, and you can better prepared for the PMP exam.
What is Monte Carlo Simulation Technique?
According to Wikipedia, Monte Carlo experiments are a class of computational algorithms that rely on repeated random sampling to compute their results. Monte Carlo methods are often used in computer simulations of physical and mathematical systems. These methods are most suited to calculation by a computer and tend to be used when it is infeasible to compute an exact result with a deterministic algorithm.
They are used to model phenomena with significant uncertainty in inputs, such as the calculation of risk in business.
When Monte Carlo simulations are applied, their predictions of failures, cost overruns and schedule overruns are routinely better than human intuition or alternative “soft” methods.
How does the Monte Carlo Simulation Work?
To conduct a Monte Carlo simulation, you need to have your project’s Network Diagram, and the duration of each task. If you want to do a Cost simulation, then the associated cost for each task must be identified too.
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